Caucuses and Primaries

[MorGrendel]

New Hampshire:
So this is a primary. "Since 1977, New Hampshire has fought hard to keep its timing as the first primary (while Iowa has the first caucus a few days sooner.) State law requires that its primary must be the first in the nation (it had been the first by tradition since 1920)."
"Before 1992, the person elected president had always carried the primary, but Bill Clinton broke the pattern in 1992, as did George W. Bush in 2000, and Barack Obama in 2008. In 1992, Clinton lost to Paul Tsongas in New Hampshire; in 2000, George W. Bush lost to John McCain in New Hampshire; and in 2008 Barack Obama lost to Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary."

Delegates: So I'm not 100% but it looks like NH only has 12 delegates up for grabs. I would have expected them to have 25-27, but I know Florida is being punished for moving their primary up and losing half of thier delegates, so maybe NH is is in the same boat. It is a representative state, so no canidate should garner more than 6 delegates, so they are .5% closer to nomination. NH is useless delegate-wise, however, it is where frontrunners are crowned and up and comers amerge on the scene. I'm calling this one Romney (42%), Paul (19%), Santorum (15%), Huntman (12%), Gingrish (6%), and Perry (6%). Paul wants to break 20%, but they will come from Santorum and Huntman. I hope he does.

South Carolina:
Santorum is already down in SC campainging. SC changes its mind like they change socks. Santorum is surging now, and Paul, Perry, and Huntman are circling the bottom. That said, I could see any of the three coming in second.

Florida:
Due to the halving of delegates. Some canidates are talking about skipping Florida. Rumor is Paul will skip Florida, as the elderly don't like him.

[MorGrendel]

NH: Primary Complete.
Romney Won, no surprise. Paul broke 20% which is huge, but can he top 25%? Huntman did better than I thought. I don't think I'll be posting percentages again.

Delegate count (unofficial - Check pledged vs unpledged. Thankfully GOP does not have Superdelegates) http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries.html
Romney 23 Paul 10 Santorum 8 Perry 4 Gingrich 3 Huntsman 2

Wait, back to Iowa:
Remember that Iowa was a caucuse, and the county votes are non-binding. 99 counties, but only 12 delegates; so who decides the delegates? It's done at the state level. Here's an article saying the "real winner" might actually be Paul afterall. http://www.greeleygazette.com/press/?p=12764
(BTW, I did not go looking for this article, it was the first thing that popped up when I typed in GOP Delegate Count)

[MorGrendel]

Well, crap. Internet Gods ate my post. No time now, so a quick recap.

Iowa: Santorum wins by 34 votes in recount.
SC: Ugly place. Perry and Huntsman out. Newt surging. Cain/Colbert polling better than bottom three. Predict Finish, Romney, but Newt just behind.

VA: Only Paul and Romney on ballot. Why?